Our predictions for the north’s 18 constituencies on polling day

NORTH BELFAST

North Belfast is a constituency where changing demographics and key and boundary changes have marginally increased the nationalist population.

Nigel Dodds has held the seat since 2001 when the DUP snatched victory from the UUP and in 2015 Mr Dodds secured 19,096 votes to Gerry Kelly’s 13,770.

Mr Dodds success at holding the seat for a fourth time was made possible by an electoral pact with the UUP.

Sinn Féin are currently buoyed by a re-invigorated nationalist electorate but the party do not take their seats in Westminster and have in the past struggled to get their voters enthused by the prospect of voting for a parliament they barely recognise.

The SDLP have ruled out electoral pacts with Sinn Féin in the past but the 3,338 votes the party secured in 2015, may provide Kelly with the greatest chance of victory.

For the DUP to lose north Belfast, ousting their deputy leader, may be unthinkable for unionists but it’s far from impossible.

Prediction: Sinn Féin in with a real chance.

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WEST BELFAST

Sinn Féin would probably get any candidate it selected elected in West Belfast. It is the party’s safest of safe seats.

They have held it since 1983 when Gerry Adams was first elected with only a brief interruption when the SDL’Ps Dr Joe Hendron took the seat in 1992.

Adams moved into southern politics in 2011 when the mantle was passed to Paul Maskey.

In the 2015 Westminster election the party were victim to voter apathy, mixed with a welfare reform backlash.

Their vote dropped by almost 17 per cent, with People Before Profit (PBP) taking 19 per cent of the vote. Not that it mattered as the party were safe as houses with 19,163 votes.

Sinn Féin hold four of the five west Belfast assembly seats and comfortably saw off the PBP challenge in May.

Prediction: In the bag for Sinn Féin.

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FOYLE


 John Hume and wife Pat

The home of John Hume has been a safe SDLP seat since it was created in 1983.

In 2005 Mark Durkan took over from his iconic predecessor and has been in post since, managing to increase his vote in 2015 by just over three per cent.

However, the snap assembly election in March saw Sinn Féin outpoll the SDLP in the constituency for the first time

The death of Martin McGuinness has had a big impact in Derry and republicans will no doubt be keen to remind voters of the legacy of the former Deputy First Minister as they take to the polls.

Prediction: Too close to call

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EAST DERRY


The DUP’s Gregory Campbell. Picture by Mal McCann

Gregory Campbell has held the East Derry – or East Londonderry – since 2001 when he took over from the Ulster Unionist Party’s William Ross, who had held the seat since the consistency was formed in 1983.

The UUP have since been all but wiped out in the area – in 2015 the party’s vote dropped by a further 2.4 per cent with William McCandless polling 5,333.

A Paisleyite, and traditional hard line DUP member there had been rumours Mr Campbell would retire at the end of the current term, however, that seems very unlikely in light of a snap election.

Caoimhe Archibald of Sinn Féin came in second last time with 6,859 votes, which is about all there is for the party in the unionist dominated area.

Prediction: DUP comfortable

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WEST TYRONE

West Tyrone is a predictable constituency; nothing has changed in the area since Sinn Féin veteran Pat Doherty defeated William Thompson of the Ulster Unionist Party in 2001.

One of the newer constituencies, it was only created in the 1997 boundary change and has remained green for the last 16-years.

Even a unionist pact is unlikely to change that, the DUP and UUP combined vote in the last Westminster election coming in shy of 13,000, no match for Pat Doherty’s 16,807 votes in 2015.

Prediction: Sinn Féin safe seat

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MID ULSTER


Michelle O’Neill celebrates her victory with Ian Milne and Mid Ulster MP Francie Molloy

Mid Ulster is best known as the constituency of the late Martin McGuinness and nostalgia at his recent passing and his outspoken opposition to Brexit are bound to be key talking points in a snap election aimed at securing an increased Tory mandate.

Sinn Féin’s Francie Molloy has been the sitting MP since 2013, when Mr McGuinness resigned the seat after the end of double jobbing.

While the 2015 election marked a slight drop in the Sinn Féin vote the party still managed to secure just shy of 20,000 votes in a constituency with 40,922 valid votes cast.

The home of the party’s current leader Michelle O’Neill, Sinn Féin hold three of the five current assembly seats.

Prediction: Safe Sinn Féin

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NORTH ANTRIM


Ian Paisley jnr

NORTH Antrim is perhaps one of the safest seats for the DUP and has been a cornerstone of the Paisley political dynasty for nearly half a decade.

Always a unionist stronghold, the former first minister Ian Paisley captured the seat from Ulster Unionist Henry Maitland Clark in 1970.

The elder Paisley stepped down as first minister and DUP leader in 2008 and shortly after announced he would not be contesting his parliamentary seat in 2010.

Ian Paisley Jnr took his father’s seat in 2010 with a healthy 46.4 per cent of the votee.

Prediction: DUP hold

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SOUTH ANTRIM


Senior Ulster Unionist politician Danny Kinahan, who is now MP for South Antrim

SOUTH Antrim has been a unionist tug-of-war for decades, swapping alternately between the DUP and UUP in every election since 1983.

In early 2000 the Ulster Unionist incumbent, Clifford Forsythe, died suddenly and the ensuing by-election took place amidst a fierce political struggle between the two unionist party’s over the Good Friday Agreement.

The DUP’s William McCrea narrowly won the seat over the UUP’s David Burnside in 2000.

In the 2001 general election Burnside retook his seat, before William McCrea topped the poll once again in 2005 and 2010, only to narrowly lose it in 2015 to the UUP’s Danny Kinahan.

One way or another, South Antrim will remain a unionist constituency, but just which unionist party comes up trumps is uncertain.

Prediction: Contested unionist

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EAST ANTRIM


It’s the DUP’s Sammy Wilson, who as environment minister said he believed climate change was a con 

IN an overwhelmingly unionist constituency, the UUP’s Roy Beggs Snr has safely held the East Antrim seat since 1983, before a surprising upset in 2005 by the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.

The DUP stalwart has maintained his seat ever since by a comfortable margin, never dropping much less than 20 per cent ahead of his nearest competitor.

A frequent media spokesperson for the party, Wilson has been in the public eye for years and has seemingly enjoyed the support of many hard-line unionists.

The nearest threat to any UUP/DUP victory in recent ballots came in 2015, when the Alliance party’s Stewart Dickson came in third with 15 per cent of the vote share, however this is unlikely to worry any unionists in June.

Prediction: DUP hold

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LAGAN VALLEY


DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson 

MUCH like East Antrim, Lagan Valley has been a unionist stronghold ever since the seat was created in 1983.

It has also historically returned one of the highest vote totals for the UUP .

James Molyneaux held the seat for 14 years until his retirement in 1997, when it was represented by the then rising star of the party, Jeffrey Donaldson.

Shortly after the 1998 election Donaldson left the UUP and joined the DUP and has maintained between 47 and 55 per cent of the vote share in every election since.

No one has come close to threatening the former junior minister’s seat in the commons and June is likely to be another comfortable victory.

Prediction: DUP hold

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UPPER BANN

FOR almost 15 years, the former UUP leader David Trimble represented Upper Bann in the commons.

His once strong majority was slowly eroded, however, when both nationalist and DUP support grew over the years.

This situation came to a head in 2005 when the DUP’s David Simpson toppled Trimble in a bitterly fought, mud-slinging contest- one which would see the Ulster Unionist resign as the leader of his party soon after.

From at one time being relegated to the back of the field, the nationalist vote share has grown to a combined 35 per cent in recent years, making Upper Bann a safe bet for no one.

Prediction: contested

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FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE

A seat once held by IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands, Fermanagh and South Tyrone has seen some of the closest races ever fought in any election in the north.

The UUP’s Ken Maginnis stood down from the seat he had held for nearly 18 years in the run up to the 2001 election and Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew won the seat over the UUP’s James Cooper by just 53 votes.

In 2010, it was just four votes that saw Gildernew keep her seat when she beat unionist independent candidate Rodney O’Connor in a controversial contest, which involved a dispute of the counting of ballot papers.

The UUP’s Tom Elliot then ousted the incumbent nationalist in 2015, courtesty of a unionist pact.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone will likely live up to its reputation and be a neck-and-neck contest once again.

Prediction: Too close to call

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SOUTH BELFAST:


Former SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell will stand again in South Belfast. Picture by Mal McCann

One of the battles of the election, the race for South Belfast is set to go right to the wire.

The SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell, the area’s MP for 12 years, faces a sustained attack on two fronts as he seeks to protect a majority of just 900 votes.

In the last election in 2015, Mr McDonnell held on despite winning the lowest ever share of the vote of any successful MP, at 24.5%.

The question of whether there are pacts on either the unionist or nationalist side will ultimately seal Mr McDonnell’s fate.

In 2010, Sinn Féin’s Máirtín Ó Muilleoir stood aside to allow the SDLP a free run, with the party winning a majority of almost 6,000, but bolstered by his poll-topping performance in the Assembly election last month is unlikely to do so again.

However, of arguably greater influence on the race is whether unionists rally round one candidate, which they have failed to do on every occasion since Mr McDonnell’s election as MP.

In 2015, Jonathan Bell was parachuted into the seat by the DUP and came within 900 votes of victory, with 3,500 preferences that would have got him comfortably across the line going to the Ulster Unionist candidate Rodney McCune.

Prediction: Too close to call

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EAST BELFAST:


Alliance leader Naomi Long has claimed some politicians are refusing to compromise on “vanity projects”. Picture by Mal McCann

East Belfast is an example of where unity has delivered for unionists.

After a shock win for Alliance’s Naomi Long in 2010, the DUP managed to translate anger over the removal of the Union flag at City Hall and the decision of the UUP to stand aside into a victory for Gavin Robinson.

Mrs Long, who enters the race this time round having topped the poll at the Assembly election, will nonetheless face an uphill struggle to regain the seat if the Ulster Unionists withdraw.

In another likely showdown with Mr Robinson, the Alliance leader will need the votes of nationalists and Green supporters if she is to overturn a deficit of more than 2,500 and topple the DUP again.

Prediction: DUP hold

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NORTH DOWN:


Lady Sylvia Hermon has questioned border security in the event of a Brexit. Picture by Cliff Donaldson

A safe unionist seat, the only issue to be resolved in North Down is whether independent Lady Sylvia Hermon manages to hold on against the DUP.

For the past two years, the DUP has secured three seats in each Assembly election in the constituency.

However, if the DUP is to follow through on that warning, it will need to win round the section of its voters who have continually backed Mrs Hermon in Westminster elections.

A widow of former RUC Chief Constable Sir Jack Hermon and the area’s MP for 16 years, Mrs Hermon attracts a huge personal vote.

In 2015, DUP candidate Alex Easton polled less than half the tally of Lady Sylvia, who had a majority of more than 9,000.

Prediction: Independent unionist hold

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STRANGFORD


DUP’s Jim Shannon after winning the Strangford seat at the count centre in Newtownards. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Friday May 7, 2010. Photo credit should read: Julien Behal/PA Wire.

Another safe unionist seat, the DUP’s Jim Shannon won a majority of more than 10,000 here in 2015.

Ever since Iris Robinson overturned the UUP’s dominance in Strangford in 2001, the DUP have retained the seat at a canter.

Such was the UUP’s collapse at the last Westminster election in Strangford that Alliance came within 200 votes of finishing in second place behind Mr Shannon.

Alliance MLA Kellie Armstrong, who ran in 2015, secured the first seat here in last month’s Assembly election and may emerge as the main contender to the DUP.

Mike Nesbitt, who unsuccessfully challenged the DUP in the 2010 Westminster election, may revive the UUP’s flagging fortunes should he decide to stand but the safe bet is on another comfortable victory for Mr Shannon.

Prediction: DUP hold

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SOUTH DOWN:

June’s election will mark almost three decades to the day when the SDLP’s Eddie McGrady won the South Down seat at Westminster.

The party never looked back and the SDLP have held firm ever since, fighting off first unionists and later Sinn Féin.

However, Sinn Féin have gradually made up ground over the years, halving the gap on the SDLP in Westminster elections since 2001.

Sinéad Ennis topped the poll for Sinn Féin in last month’s Assembly election, and of greater concern for the SDLP, its overall first preference vote was lower than Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin will feel this is their greatest opportunity at the South Down seat, but Margaret Ritchie is bolstered by a 6,000 majority and may attract tactical votes from unionists.

Prediction: Sinn Féin gain

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NEWRY AND ARMAGH:

This seat last changed hands in 2005, when Sinn Féin capitalised on the retirement of the SDLP’s Seamus Mallon to capture the prize it had long coveted.

The SDLP has struggled to make up the ground ever since, failing to get within 8,000 votes of Sinn Féin in the past two elections.

As a result the Ulster Unionists emerged as the main contender to Mickey Brady in 2015, with Danny Kennedy finishing 4,000 votes behind in second place, albeit as the main unionist candidate following the DUP’s withdrawal.

Mr Kennedy, fresh from losing his Assembly seat, may be free to focus his energy on another attempt at Westminster but he will be hard pressed to get across the line in the overwhelmingly nationalist constituency.

Prediction: Sinn Féin hold


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